Government Shutdown Updates

Not much shifted politically on the 29^th day of the federal government shutdown. Everyone expects the shutdown to continue into November, and both parties are waiting to see what the fallout is when the shutdown continues past November 1 when funding for SNAP, WIC, and HeadStart runs out. Many Republicans believe Democrats will face enormous blowback in their districts, pushing them towards flipping their votes.

• While most federal workers are going without pay, the Trump administration has shifted funds around to ensure paychecks for the Coast Guard, FBI, Secret Service and TSA, along with Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
• Food aid - known as SNAP and WIC- will be halted this weekend for millions of Americans, if the Trump administration doesn’t tap contingency funding. Senate Republicans plan to block a Democratic bill to require the administration to fund both SNAP and WIC, and to reimburse states for floating benefits during the shutdown.
• House employees, who are paid once a month, are set to miss their first paycheck this week.

Congress and the White House are just days away from a significant escalation of the government shutdown. Starting Saturday, November 1, SNAP benefits will be stopped for over 40 million people, active-service military members will miss their next paychecks, and millions of Americans will see sharp increases to their healthcare premium costs. Plus, more than 58,000 children in 134 Head Start centers across 41 states and Puerto Rico will miss out on their federal grants.

Democratic and Republican strategists and pollsters agree that the government shutdown is a growing liability for both parties, as members of Congress hear from their constituents. The changing political dynamics could push both parties towards reaching an agreement.

Several Senators are introducing legislation to blunt some of the harshest impacts of the shutdown, but none are expected to be enacted soon. Sen. Hawley (R-MO) said he may try to push forward a bill to fund SNAP for the duration of the shutdown. Sen. Cruz (R-TX) has a bill to pay air traffic controllers, and Sen. Sullivan (R-AK) has legislation to pay troops. Meanwhile, a bipartisan effort from Sen. Johnson (R-WI) and Sen. Van Hollen (D-MD) to reach an agreement on legislation to pay federal workers and active-duty military is seen as having the best chance for moving forward.

Yesterday, the Senate failed to pass two competing bills - one from Republicans, and one from Democrats - aimed at ensuring federal workers and active-duty military members are paid on time. The Senate could vote again next week, if the two parties can bridge their differences this weekend. Sens. Johnson (R-WI), Van Hollen (D-MD) and Peters (D-MI) are reportedly working to merge their competing proposals, with the hopes of finding a compromise that can garner the support needed for enactment. A major sticking point will likely be a provision included in Van Hollen’s bill that limits the President's ability to fire federal employees during the shutdown.

Today, the Senate Republicans brought up for a vote a bill that would have paid some federal employees during the shutdown, including service members. The measure failed to garner the votes necessary. Democrats argued that the bill would give the president broad authority to determine who gets paid and who doesn't. They offered their own pair of bills that would have paid all federal workers, but Republicans objected.

For the first time, the Senate will not hold a vote on the House-passed Continuing Resolution (CR) to reopen and fund the government through November 21. The Senate is also unlikely to hold a vote tomorrow. There is growing recognition that Nov 21 is not enough time for Congress to pass full spending bills, so Republican leaders are considering other options. Some suggest voting on a CR to keep the government open until late January, while some GOP lawmakers are even talking about a stopgap through next September or longer.

This means that the shutdown is all but guaranteed to continue. Many experts anticipate it could last through October into November.

Polls show that nearly 90 percent of Americans believe the shutdown is at least a “minor problem,” and more than half see it as a “major one,” according to an AP-NORC poll out last week.

This shutdown is now the second-longest in U.S. history, and there is still no solution in sight. As Sen. Murkowski (R-AK) says, neither party sees an incentive in reaching a compromise. "Both sides think there is political advantage in sticking with the positions that they have." 

The House is still on recess, and the Senate continues to bring the House-passed Continuing Resolution (CR) to reopen the government to the floor for a vote daily. Today, the Senate is expected to vote on the measure for the 12^th time. The bill is not expected to pass.

Currently, there are no top-level negotiations between congressional leaders and the White House. Senate Leader Schumer (D-NY) and House Leader Jeffries (D-NY) requested a meeting with the President to jumpstart negotiations on extending the Affordable Care Act enhanced premium tax credits, but the request was denied; President Trump says he will meet with Democrats, but only after the government is reopened. In addition, 13 House Republicans sent a letter to Speaker Johnson (R-LA), urging Congress to reach a deal to extend and reform the healthcare tax credits after the government reopens.

Members of Congress are growing frustrated. Some Senate Republicans have suggested changing the filibuster rules to reduce the number of votes needed to reopen the government, despite Senate Leader Thune (R-SD)'s opposition. Both parties are working on separate, competing bills to continue pay for certain federal workers. 

In a sign of progress, Republican leaders are now preparing for negotiations with Democrats to reopen the government. Reports suggest that congressional leaders are discussing options with the White House over how to structure an extension of the Affordable Care Act enhanced premium tax credits, which expire this year and which Democrats have made their top priority in negotiations. Republicans are also discussing internally changes they may want to advocate for in exchange for extending the tax credits, including imposing an income limit for beneficiaries, requiring individuals to pay a minimum out-of-pocket premium, or cutting off new enrollment in the program, among other ideas. 

According to reports, Republicans may offer to attach a two-year extension of the tax credits - alongside policy changes - to a larger package of bipartisan, full-year spending bills or another continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government open. Senate Leader Thune (R-SD) suggested that Republicans are talking internally about whether to propose a longer-term CR to keep the government open through December, spring 2026, or for the full fiscal year. A full-year CR provides level funding for federal programs, but fails to keep up with rising costs and inflation.

The Senate is back in town, and it will vote this evening for the 11^th time on a continuing resolution (CR) to reopen and fund the government through November 21. The Senate will also vote this week on the "Shutdown Fairness Act," which if enacted, would ensure timely paychecks for federal employees who are required to work during the shutdown. Senate Democrats are expected to block both bills. Democrats continue to withhold their support for reopening the government until Congress and the White House agree to extend the Affordable Care Act enhanced premium tax credits that expire this year.

Today is Day 17 of the federal government shutdown. Both the House and Senate are out of session today, so we do not expect votes today on a continuing resolution (CR) to reopen the government. When the Senate returns Monday afternoon, Senate Leader Thune (R-SD) will tee up a vote on the Senate floor for later in the week on legislation to continue paying federal workers and members of the military during the shutdown. The shift in strategy comes after 10 failed votes to reopen the government, a failed vote yesterday to pass a full-year spending bill for Defense programs, and no end in sight. Frustrations are running high in the Senate!

Congressional leaders from both parties are essentially waiting for President Trump to jump into negotiations. Both parties know that negotiations cannot happen until/unless the president becomes involved.

In the meantime, the Administration is continuing its efforts to pressure Democrats. The White House is hitting pause on $11 billion in Army Corps of Engineers projects in blue cities including New York, San Francisco, Boston, and Baltimore, and it is "considering them for cancellation." 

The Senate voted again for the 10^th time today on a continuing resolution (CR) to reopen and fund the govenment through Nov. 21. And for the 10^th time, the measure failed. Does it feel like Groundhog Day yet?

In a change of strategy, Senate Republicans attempted to bring a full-year Defense spending bill to the floor for a vote this afternoon, in hopes to peel off some Democrats. Democrats defeated the measure, arguing that they won't vote to enact one spending bill without a clearer understanding and agreement about how the whole government will be funded. 

After today's votes, the Senate has adjourned until Monday afternoon, guaranteeing that the federal government will be closed for at least 20 days.

In a positive move, Senate Leader Thune (R-SD) offered Democrats to guarantee a vote on legislation to extend the Affordable Care Act enhanced premium tax credits, if Democrats agree to vote in favor of a CR to reopen the government. Thune continues to insist, however, that Republicans will not negotiate on the substance of any extension of the tax credits, which are set to expire this year, until the government is reopened. 

Democrats, meanwhile, want greater assurances that the tax credits will be extended (as opposed to only getting assurances that a vote will be held). Moderate Republican Sen. Murkowski (R-AK) said she understands Democrats' lack of trust in these negotiations, pointing to the Trump administration’s past use of “pocket rescissions” to claw back billions in government funding that had already been approved by Congress.

A recent poll found that Americans blame Republicans and Democrats roughly equally for the shutdown. Fifty-eight of Americans surveyed said both Republicans in Congress and Trump are responsible for the shutdown, while 54 percent said Democrats in Congress are responsible. Those numbers split along party lines - which explains why both sides are so dug in.

After Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russ Vought threatened to fire as many as 10,000 federal employees, a federal court judge issued a temporary restraining order last night preventing the Administration from moving forward with these plans.

After eight failed votes to reopen the government, Senate Leader Thune (R-SD) is changing strategies to increase pressure on Democrats. On Thursday, the Senate will vote on the House-passed Defense spending bill. If Democrats vote in support of the bill, it could undermine their leverage in negotiations over reopening the government and extending the Affordable Care Act enhanced premium tax credits, which are set to expire this year. The move could split Democrats, who have largely remained unified in their approach so far. 

At the same time, Republican leaders are working to advance a "minibus," a package of full-year appropriations bills for some spending areas, including Agriculture/Food and Drug Administration (Ag), Military Construction/Veterans Affairs (MILCON-VA), and the Legislative Branch. A full-year spending bill for Transportation - Housing and Urban Development (THUD) could be added as well.

To maximize pressure on Democrats, President Trump said he will announce on Friday a new recission package should the government shutdown drag on. According to the President, “We’re closing up programs that are Democrat programs that we were opposed to," including “the most egregious, socialist, semi communist, probably not full communist” programs. The recission package will likely be pre-negotiated with congressional Republicans to ensure enough support for enactment. One big question is whether the recission package will include cuts beyond programs at the U.S. Department of Education and foreign aid - which have been the targets of the past two recission packages passed by Congress. The Senate can enact a recission package with only 50 votes, allowing Republicans to rescind federal funds without Democratic input.

Today, a federal court will hear arguments on litigation brought by labor unions representing federal workers against the Trump Administration for its mass layoffs during the shutdown. The plaintiffs allege that there is no statutory basis for layoffs, and they are asking for a temporary restraining order. The Administration says that it might lay off as many as 10,000 federal employees.

This evening, the Senate will vote for the 8^th time on a short-term gap measure to reopen and fund the government through November 21. For the 8^th time, the measure is expected to fail to garner the 60 votes needed for enactment.

Congress and the White House are largely dug in, and they show no signs of moving off of their initial positions. There have not been any negotiations among congressional leaders since the shutdown began. Both Republicans and Democrats remain steadfast in believing that the other party will eventually cave. 

Many policymakers believed that October 15 would have been a major pressure point for negotiations. This is the date when active-duty military members were set to miss their first paycheck. Now that the Trump Administration has shifted funding around to ensure military members are paid tomorrow, however, experts warn the shutdown could drag on for weeks more.

Last Friday, the White House laid off 1,000s of federal workers, as part of their effort to maximize pressure on Democrats. Now, the White House is warning that there will be more layoffs, if the shutdown continues.

Some agencies most impacted include:

• Treasury - 1,446 workers laid off, including those in the Large Business and International (LB&I) Division, which handles tax administration for domestic and foreign corporations, as well as in the Information Technology Division and the Office of Privacy, Governmental Liaison and Disclosure (PGLD).
• Health and Human Services - 600 workers laid off, including at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
• Education - 466 workers laid off, including nearly all of its staff at the Office of Special Education and Rehabilitative Services (OSERS).
• Housing and Urban Development - 442 workers laid off, including those in the Office of Community Planning and Development (CPD), which oversees grants to support low-income communities, and housing and homelessness programs.
• Commerce - 315 workers laid off.
• Energy - 187 workers laid off, many in the Office of Minority Economic Impact.     
• Homeland Security - 176 workers laid off, including those at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
• EPA - including those at the Office of Land and Emergency Management.

The Senate is now on recess until Tuesday, when it will vote for the eighth time to reopen the federal government. 

The White House and congressional Republicans are trying to increase pressure on Democrats to flip their votes. Administration officials announced today that it has begun to lay off a "substantial" number of federal workers. An administration official said the layoffs are hitting the U.S. Departments of Interior, Homeland Security, Treasury, Health and Human Services, Housing and Urban Development, Commerce, Education and Energy, as well as the EPA. Labor unions representing federal workers have filed litigation. Speaker Johnson (R-LA) also shared that congressional Republicans and the White House have been working on future recession packages to claw back federal funding approved by Congress.

At the same time, there is growing disagreement among some Republicans who take issue with Speaker Johnson's decision to keep the House in recess next week - for the 3rd week in a row. Likewise, a bipartisan group of policymakers are calling on congressional leaders to hold a vote on a standalone bill - led by Rep. Kiggans (R-VA) - to ensure active-duty military service members do not miss their paychecks on October 15. Congressional leaders oppose that proposal, though the White House says it is looking into ways to shift federal funds to ensure military members are paid on time.

The Administration has started to move federal dollars around to mitigate some of potential harms caused by the shutdown. Funding from the U.S. Department of Transportation is being shifted to allow the Essential Air Service program to continue through early November (the program helps airports remain open). USDA officials have given assurances that WIC, a critical food aid program, will get funding to help it stay afloat through October if the government shutdown continues.

The Senate voted today for the seventh time on a short-term funding measure to reopen and fund the government through November 21. The Senate failed to garner enough support to pass the measure. Votes are expected again tomorrow. 

After several failed attempts in the Senate, Senate Leader Thune (R-SD) is considering other options, like scheduling a vote on full-year appropriations bills, such as the spending bill for Defense programs. 

While a bipartisan group of Senators are trying to find a solution, congressional leaders from both parties are not engaged in any top-level negotiations or discussions at this time.

Meanwhile, tensions are rising. Moderate Republicans are starting to balk at House Speaker Johnson's (R-LA) decision to not call back House members to DC for the past two weeks. Members of Congress have gotten into arguments in the hallways of Congress. 

As the shutdown continues, we are starting to see policymakers grow concerned about the negative impact the shutdown could have on the American people. For example, the White House says it may try to use funding from tariffs to make up the budget shortfall to keep the Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program in operation. The Administration is also considering options to shift funding around so that active service military troops continue to be paid on time (without such action, they would miss their paychecks on October 15). Some in Congress have also signaled their willingness to vote on stand-alone legislation to ensure on-time payments to troops.

Nonprofits and states responding to the shutdown, as well. Several charitable organizations are offering loans to help military families make ends meet during the shutdown. States, like Connecticut, are preparing to invest millions to keep WIC available to moms and babies. While other states, like Arkansas, are preparing to furlough state employees funded with federal dollars.

In the meantime, TSA workers have already begun calling out sick, leading to delays at airports.

As the shutdown continues, senators from both parties are trying to find a way out — largely by negotiating an agreement on whether/how to extend the Affordable Care Act enhanced premium tax credits and a framework for enacting final fiscal year 2026 appropriations once the shutdown ends. So far, there is no deal in sight.

President Trump is threatening to not provide back-pay to furloughed federal workers, despite federal law. The ''Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019" was enacted after the longest-ever government shutdown, which occurred during the first Trump Administration, to ensure that furloughed workers would automatically paid back after a shutdown. The Administration claims that in order to compensate federal employees, Congress would need to pass a spending bill with specific funding for that purpose.

Speaker Johnson (R-LA) offered to bring the House back to pass emergency legislation to pay troops during the government shutdown, but Senate Majority Leader Thune (R-SD) has rejected that idea. If active military personnel are not paid on October 15, it would put enormous pressure on Democrats to flip their vote on a continuing resolution (CR) to reopen the government open.

Unfortunately, very little has changed since the shutdown began on October 1. Congressional leaders spent their time over the weekend blaming the other party for being responsible for the shutdown. President Trump is reportedly not talking with the Democratic leaders in Congress. And, today, the Senate is planning to hold yet another vote on the House-passed Continuing Resolution (CR) to reopen the federal government through Nov. 21. Like those CRs before it, the measure is expected to fail.

Policymakers are looking at two key dates that could be influential: (1) If a deal isn’t reached by Friday, October 10, most federal workers could miss their next paychecks, and (2) if a deal isn’t reached by October 15, active-duty military members could miss their next paycheck. Both events would ramp up the pressure on members of Congress and the White House to reach a deal.